Posted by on September 13, 2018

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The main threat from Hurricane Florence is the flooding and storm surge along the coastline of NC/SC.  I am not trying to downplay the winds and they will be bad, but the flooding will be of epic proportion near the Wilmington, NC area and points either direction 25-50 miles.  If you were in Matthew, then this will be déjà vu and all too familiar.

I am not changing my track, arrival times or rainfall amounts as they still look good to me.  The NWS is now showing these type of rainfall amounts and close to the same track.  They will probably bring it further south again at the 5pm advisory but I see no need to change the track any.

Could Florence go southwest and then west like the European model is showing?  Of course, but storm like to take the path of least resistance and a southwest loop then turn to the west then north is not what I see happening.  That is my opinion and we will see how well that is once all is said and done.

Please keep an eye to the sky and the water levels.  We see historic flooding possible and tornadoes as well in the areas northeast and east of the center of the storm.

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