Posted by on October 24, 2016

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Temperatures and Precipitation

This winter is shaping up to be one of extremes is what I am thinking so far. I have used several analog years to come to this conclusion and each one is following a strong El Nino which we just had this past winter. This is a rough first draft but what we think is the overall idea for this coming winter as far as temperatures and precipitation.

ANALOG YEARS USED

  • 1959-1960
  • 1967-1968
  • 1974-1975
  • 1984-1985

cd98-101-103-178-192-9-15-44-prcp_

cd98-101-103-178-192-9-17-59-prcp_

Polar Vortex Returns

These years were responsible for some great extremes when it comes to temperatures. One day it could be sunny and 60 and the next snowy and 30. However, even though we will have extremes it seems that for the most part temperatures will hover right around normal when all is said and done. This could mean we have an extremely cold few weeks in each month from December through February or even into March is possible but the temps will average out for the most part. However, at times the polar vortex could return to the Northeast US sending extremely cold temperatures into our region so this will be monitored closely.

polar-vortex

Blocking Should Return

The precipitation on the other is one thing that must be watched closely. I think we will be above normal for the winter of 2016-2017 and with ANY blocking that takes place it can mean some fun and games down the road in the way of wintry precipitation. Blocking is a major question mark each and every winter and still is the hardest to predict. I do think we see a continued +PDO in the Pacific, which simply means a cold pool with warm water all around promoting west coast ridging once again.

011110_greenlandblock

Conclusion

It promises to be another fun winter in a string of several winters in a row with the exception of the anemic winter last year. Hopefully, if you did not get a big snow in the last few years then this will be your year to get in on something even bigger. Bottom line, this winter will probably mimic the winter of 2014, where we observed many arctic intrusions take place and 3-4 winter storms of note.  The next winter update will be posted on November 1, 2016.

 

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Created: 10/14/2016 – Daniel Huffman