Posted by on October 30, 2018

Severe-110118

Hope everyone is enjoying the normal temperatures, because all indications are they will be going back below normal later next week.  Later next week, we could be looking at another widespread frost and freeze event.  We will keep you posted on this possibility and put out a map early next week if needed.

This coming Thursday into Saturday will feature more scattered showers and even some thunderstorms.  We must keep an eye on how much rainfall occurs due to the very wet soil moisture from all the previous rain storms.  The weather models did not do a good job on rainfall amounts with the last system and we observed many areas getting more than two inches of rainfall and dozens getting three to as much as five inches.  If this type of heavy rainfall occurs again then we will see flooding again.  I do not expect those type of amounts with this system but keep an eye on your rain gauge locally and an eye on area streams.

The second concern with this system coming for Thursday into Friday is the severe threat.  We believe that some areas will see a greater chance than others for severe storms with this strong cold front.  The right entrance region of the jet stream will be to our northwest but as the front moves east and the surface low tracks northeast to our northwest, we will see helicity values increase.  With the increase of helicity values, we will also see potential super-cell structures in Eastern NC and the chance of an isolated tornado is not out of the question.  Keep an eye on your mobile texts, as we will send an update if severe weather threatens your area.

 

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