Today will feature some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms will be strong to severe with the main threats being damaging winds, flooding and even an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in Eastern North Carolina. We will also see some cooler weather working it’s way into the area Saturday through next Tuesday. The cooler weather will also feature less humidity and drier conditions.
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We are expecting a few outbreaks of severe weather today in our area. The main area of concern is the area where the tornado risk is in the slight category today (See Map Below). With the approach of the cold front and slightly favorable atmospheric conditions, we must watch in this area for the possibility of an isolated tornado or two.
The next area of interest will be Western North Carolina, Northwest Georgia and extreme Northwest South Carolina. The threat in these areas are mainly for damaging winds and flash flooding due to very high atmospheric moisture content.
The isolated area shown on the map will see less severe coverage but still does not rule out that one will occur. Isolated areas that are close to the slight tornado risk need to be especially on-alert, because this area could be off by 25 miles and that would mean a lot.
The map below shows where we expect the worst of the severe weather to occur. Maps are never 100% accurate as this is impossible but we are fairly confident in this forecast map. However, an isolated tornado may or may not occur in the slight tornado risk region but this is also the area where we expect the most severe weather.
After the severe weather threat, we will see a pretty big cool-down by July standards. All areas will see temperatures in the 80’s starting on Saturday and continuing through next Tuesday. Some areas of North Carolina that are west of I-85 and Near I-40, will see highs struggle to get out of the upper 70’s on Sunday. The map below details the high temperatures for your area from this Saturday through next Tuesday.
So, what is causing this cooler air you may ask? The cooler air is a result of a modified CAD or cold air damming high pressure center to the north of our area. What happens is the air moves clockwise around the high pressure area and basically dams up against the Appalachian Mountains. This is turn traps the cooler air that is coming from the north in the valleys and depending on the strength of the CAD, it can penetrate all the way into Georgia. These are more prevalent in the winter months but can happen in the late fall as well. This is the first time that I have seen one in the heart of summer though. The graphic below shows a progression of the high pressure moving to a perfect CAD scenario to the north of our area.
I know it is July but lots to look at in terms of repeating patterns, blocking, etc… The first thing that needs to be watched in the ENSO state. It appears that the ENSO will be either neutral this coming winter or a very weak El Nino.
I think the driving forces for this winter will be how much blocking we have in Greenland. This means basically if a high pressure in sitting over Greenland and has been referred to as a negative North Atlantic Oscillation or –NAO. This spells a snowy winter IF it actually occurs.
The other factor is how much of a ridge can develop in the Western United States. A ridge is basically a high pressure area that forces the diving low pressure systems into the Gulf and creates bigger winter storms.
Either one of these factors above would bring more snow and ice into our area but watch out if you get them both at one time. I will be studying this and should have my first winter outlook in October.
The next member update will be mid to late next week. Have a great weekend, enjoy the cooler weather and God Bless.
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